Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term

Summary

The major stock indices continue their multi-month pattern of lower lows and lower highs, with the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) getting oh-so-close to testing their key 200-day averages. The SPX is only nine points above the average, while the QQQ is 3.5 points above. The SPX next and last piece of chart support near current prices is the November closing low of 6,539, while the last line of defense for the QQQ sits at 585. Some other important mega-cap indices already have busted their 200-day, including the Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 100 (OEX) and the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG). The last time these four lost their 200-day was in the first part of March 2025, during the tariff tantrum. If there is a positive, the longer-term average is still rising as all these indices remain above their 50-week average. Sector weakness was broad on Wednesday, with Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials off over 2%. Crude oil was once again the culprit for the stock selloff. Light Sweet Crude (WTI) jumped 4% and is back above $99/barrel, while Brent skyrocketed almost 8% to over $111/barrel, the highest close since the Middle East war began over two weeks ago. Gasoline futures hit $