Daily Spotlight: Bull Market Still Intact

Summary

The current bull market, which begins the day with the S&P 500 at 6908, started in October 12, 2022, and is now more than three years old. During that time, the S&P 500 has risen more than 95%, and has endured high inflation, economic uncertainty, a credit rating downgrade of the U.S. Treasury, a hard-fought political election, the onset of tariffs and trade wars, and a government shutdown. The index has weathered these crises, supported by an economy that continues to grow, inflation and interest rates that have been heading lower, and robust profitability from S&P 500 companies, exemplified by Nvidia’s 82% increase in 4Q earnings. How much farther can this bull market go? We studied the 13 bull markets that have occurred since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 gained 164% during these 13 periods, which averaged 57 months in duration, or just about five years. We note that the recent bull markets have generated higher returns over longer periods. On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance about 240% over a period of almost six years. And the bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%. It is worth pointing out, though, that the 2009-2020 bull market began with stocks