Stock market today: Nasdaq leads Dow, S&P 500 higher as TSMC's strong outlook buoys AI hopes

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US stocks rose at the opening bell on Thursday, signaling a recovery from back-to-back losses as chip linchpin TSMC’s strong outlook boosted AI hopes in the wait for more big bank earnings.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) picked up around 0.9% to lead the way higher, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, following a second straight day of losses for the Wall Street indexes.

TSMC (TSM), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, posted a 35% jump in fourth quarter profit on Thursday thanks to the AI boom. The major supplier to Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) said it plans to ramp up investment to $56 billion in 2026, a sign of confidence in sustained Big Tech spending on AI buildouts. Shares in the Taiwanese company jumped, stoking a rally in chip-related stocks such as ASML (ASML). Nvidia also bounced back from Wednesday’s decline.

The mood marks a reversal after tech led stocks lower on Wednesday, which dragged on indexes and promised to revive a weeks-long rotation out of megacaps into value names.

Meanwhile, investors assessed a fresh batch of big bank earnings before the bell. Goldman Sachs (GS) profit far outstripped expectations as dealmaking stayed strong, bucking the trend. Peer BlackRock (BLK) capped 2025 with a record $14 trillion in assets as its earnings beat. On the economic front, an update on weekly jobless claims is on the docket.

Elsewhere, oil prices on Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude sank by roughly 4% each through Thursday morning amid signs the US is backing away from a military response in Iran. President Trump said Wednesday he had been told authorities there will stop killing protesters.

Silver (SI=F) prices also fell, putting the brakes on an explosive record-setting rally that pushed the metal’s total market value above $5 trillion for the first time. The retreat came after Trump said the US will hold off from putting import tariffs on critical minerals, a risk that contributed to a buildup in US inventories and supply squeeze that boosted silver prices.

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US stocks opened higher on Thursday as investors rallied for a recovery from back-to-back losses on a strong outlook from chip giant TSMC, signaling strength for the AI trade.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) picked up around 0.8% to lead the way higher, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, following a second straight day of losses for the Wall Street indexes.

In commodities, oil prices on Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude fell by roughly 4% each through Thursday morning as Trump signaled a slowdown on potential military action in Iran. President Trump said Wednesday that he had been assured security forces would stop killing protesters.

Moving in tandem with oil, store-of-value leaders gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) also fell on a cooling geopolitical environment and an announcement from the White House that President Trump will not be implementing tariffs on critical mineral imports.
Rare earth and critical minerals stocks traded on mixed footing in premarket trading on Thursday morning after President Trump said he would seek to negotiate trade agreements with foreign nations on the minerals instead of imposing tariffs.

Shares in USA Rare Earth (USAR) and MP Materials (MP) fell by roughly 3% and 1.8%, while shares in Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC) shed 0.5%. Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ), which operates mining sites in Alaska, rallied by 3.2%.

In a proclamation Wednesday night, President Trump said the Department of Commerce and the Office of the US Trade Representative shall “jointly pursue negotiation of agreements … to address the threatened impairment of the national security with respect to imports of [processed critical minerals and derivative products] from any country.”

The president also said Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jameson Greer should consider implementing price floors for trading in critical minerals, alongside other restrictive measures.

While holding off on implementing a tariff scheme in the meantime, Trump noted that “it may be appropriate to impose import restrictions, such as tariffs, if satisfactory agreements are not reached in a timely manner.”

The US, Trump said, was “100 percent net-import reliant for 12 critical minerals, and 50 percent or greater net-import reliant for a further 29 critical minerals” in 2024.” And even where the US does have mining capacity for certain minerals, the country, “lacks the domestic processing capacity to avoid downstream net-import reliance.”

The Department of Defense has taken equity stakes in both MP Materials and Trilogy Metals, while the Department of Energy has invested in Lithium Americas.
US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week to their lowest level since November, as seasonal volatility seemingly continued to grip the labor market measure.

Jobless claims have remained volatile on a week-to-week basis since the Thanksgiving holiday — and really since the end of the government shutdown.

Reuters reports:

Read more here.
Goldman Sachs (GS) vaulted past its own equity trading revenue highs, setting a new Wall Street record and far exceeding expectations in its fourth quarter earnings.

The global investment bank’s equity trading desk posted revenue of $4.31 billion for the fourth quarter, coming in 25% higher than the same quarter last year and breaking the bank’s own record set in the second quarter of 2025.

Analysts had expected $3.65 billion in equity trading revenues, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Shares in Goldman Sachs initially jumped by around 1% in premarket trading before reversing around 1.7%.

Elsewhere at Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, the bank’s fixed income, currencies, and commodities trading desk posted revenue of $3.11 billion, up 12.5% from a year ago and exceeding analyst expectations.

Investment banking fees rose 25% from a year ago to $2.58 billion but missed analyst expectations of $2.66 billion, according to Reuters.
Intel (INTC) got its second upgrade this week on Thursday as Citi (C) analysts raised their rating on the stock to Neutral from Sell.

Analyst Atif Malik said that supply tightness in TSMC’s (TSM) packaging business would be a tailwind for the US chipmaker.

Packaging refers to when a finished chip is wired up and placed into a protective shell so it can be used in computers and electronics. Intel’s advanced packaging business has recently attracted interest from Big Tech hyperscalers for their custom AI chips, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said this week in his own note upgrading Intel shares.

Citi’s Malik also said he believes Intel will get front-end foundry customers as yields on its 18A-P and 14A manufacturing processes improve. In other words, he thinks companies will eventually, actually pay Intel to manufacture their chips rather than just package them, which is far more lucrative.

Meanwhile, Intel got a nod from its revered competitor, TSMC, which leads the chip manufacturing industry and produces leading edge chips for Nvidia.

Asked whether the US government investment in Intel and the chipmaker’s partnership with Nvidia was a competitive concern for TSMC, CEO C.C. Wei said he wasn’t worried during a call with analysts early Thursday morning.

But, he said: “We have a competitor — no doubt about it — that’s a formidable competitor.”

“But first, it takes time; two, we don’t underestimate their progress.”

Such acknowledgement from industry leader TSMC indicates how far Intel’s struggling manufacturing business has come, as the company’s turnaround is still questioned by many on Wall Street. The stock rose fractionally Thursday and is up 154% over the past year.
Shares of chip equipment makers rallied before the bell on the heels of a confidence boost from AI bellwether TSMC (TSM).

The Taiwanese contract chipmaker’s outlook and record Q4 profit lifted optimism that the AI-fueled Big Tech buildout will keep on stoking demand.

US-listed shares of ASML (ASML), a big supplier to TSMC, rose over 6% after the Dutch gear maker’s market value topped $500 billion for the first time in Amsterdam.

Lam Research (LRCX) surged almost 9%, while fellow US equipment provider Applied Materials (AMAT) rose around 8%.

Meanwhile, shares of TSMC customer Nvidia (NVDA) also moved up, but their advance was more muted at around 1%.
Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban writes:

Read more here in the takeaway from today’s Morning Brief.
Bloomberg reports:

Stablecoins are a key pillar of the cryptoasset universe, and usage is booming after the US passed legislation governing them in July. After their success helping get Trump elected and the stablecoin bill passed, crypto executives now fear the impasse over tokens pegged to the dollar could prevent the US regulatory framework from catching up with other markets.

“This delay is concerning as it creates a probability for the US to be one of the only major digital assets hubs without a clear capital markets rulebook in 2026,” said Dea Markova, director of policy at Fireblocks, a crypto custody services provider.

Read more here.
Penumbra (PEN) stock rose 13% before the bell following the news that Boston Scientific (BSX) would purchase the medical device company for $14.5 billion in order to expand its vascular pipeline.

Boston Scientific (BSX) shares fell 2% following the announcement.

Reuters reports:

Read more here.
BlackRock (BLK) stock edged higher by almost 2% on Thursday during premarket trading, after the asset manager pulled in $342 billion of total client cash in Q4. This has now pushed the company to a record $14 trillion of assets.

Bloomberg News reports:

Read more here.
Bloomberg reports:

The sense of calm that has pervaded the US stock market for months is masking unprecedented bursts of volatility in individual shares, say Barclays Plc strategists.

Last year was a case in point, when some of the biggest components in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) Index saw abnormal swings as the gauge registered an AI-led, 16% rally. Between the 100 largest index members, there were 47 instances of sharp selloffs — specifically, a drop of five standard deviations or more, a move so rare it’s often considered an anomaly, according to Barclays. That’s the most in the bank’s data going back to 1998.

More of the same is probably ahead this year, Barclays says, in a call that underscores in part how dependent the benchmark gauge has become on the trajectory of shares related to the artificial-intelligence theme. But according to Barclays, it also shows how AI itself has sped up how traders process market-moving events.

“Single stocks have become where the center of gravity of volatility is,” Stefano Pascale, head of US equity derivatives research at Barclays, said in a phone interview. That environment has created a “lottery-ticket mentality” among retail traders, he said.

Read more here.
Applied Materials’ (AMAT) stock rose 8% before the bell on Thursday after receiving an OutPerform rating and $385 price target from analysts at RBC Capital.

Spotify (SPOT) stock edged higher by 2% on Thursday during premarket hours after announcing it would ‌raise the price of ‌its monthly premium subscription service by $1 to $12.99 for existing ⁠subscribers ‌in the United States, Estonia ‍and Latvia markets.

Entegris Inc. (ENTG) stock rose 7% before the bell today after announcing on Wednesday that its board of directors had authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share to be paid on February 18, 2026 to shareholders.
ASML (ASML, ASML.AS) shares soared over 7% to a record high in Amsterdam, sending its market value beyond $500 billion, after its key customer TSMC gave a stronger-than-anticipated outlook for 2026.

Meanwhile, the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker’s US-listed stock also popped after the Taiwanese contract chipmaking giant’s strong Q4 earnings, up over 4% in premarket.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.
Shares of TSMC (TSM, 2330.TW) rose early Thursday after the world’s biggest contract chipmaker posted a forecast-smashing 35% jump in fourth quarter profit thanks to the AI boom.

The company also predicted robust growth in 2026 and said it plans to increase investment, hinting that more US factories are in the works.

Riding high on what it calls the “AI mega trend”, TSMC said its customers were “providing strong signals” ‌and reaching out directly to request capacity, per Reuters.

AP reported:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., a major supplier to companies including Nvidia and Apple, reported a net profit of 506 billion new Taiwan dollars ($16 billion) for the October-December quarter, a 35% surge from a year earlier, better than analysts’ estimates.

TSMC said Thursday that its revenue in the last quarter increased 21% from a year earlier to more than 1.046 trillion new Taiwan dollars ($33 billion).

TSMC said it plans to boost its capital expenditure budget to $52 billion-$56 billion for 2026, up from about $40 billion last year. The company’s shares have climbed more than 8% since the beginning of the year, reflecting its strong position in the AI-driven market.

… “We expect our business to be supported by continuous strong demand for our leading edge process technologies,” Wendell Huang, TSMC’s chief financial officer, said in a conference call. He said spending would be “significantly higher” in the next three years.

Read more here.
Reuters reports:

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Bloomberg reports:

Oil fell for the first time in six days after US President Donald Trump signaled he may hold off on attacking Iran for now.

Brent (BZ=F) dropped as much as 2.9% to trade below $65 a barrel after gaining about 11% over the past week while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $60. Trump said he’d been assured that Iran would stop killing protesters, reducing the likelihood of an immediate US military response to the demonstrations against the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and of disruptions to Iranian production and key shipping lanes.

Elsewhere, US government data showed nationwide crude stockpiles rose 3.4 million barrels last week — the largest build since early November. The rising inventories, more Venezuelan oil heading to the US, plus a disruption at a key terminal in the Black Sea has pushed WTI to near the deepest discount in 15 months relative to Brent.

Read more here.

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Stock market today: Nasdaq leads Dow, S&P 500 higher as TSMC’s strong outlook buoys AI hopes