Daily Spotlight: Global Stocks Were Leaders in 2025

Summary

We have three strategic asset-allocation models, targeting risk levels: conservative, growth, and aggressive. We make tactical adjustments to the models, based on our outlooks for the various segments of the capital markets. Performance matters, and we monitor it closely. In 2025, stocks and bonds started the year close, but stocks pulled ahead in 2Q and maintained a double-digit outperformance through the balance of the year. From an asset-allocation standpoint, our Stock-Bond Barometer model still slightly favors bonds over stocks for long-term portfolio positioning. We are over-weight on large-cap stocks at this stage of the market cycle; we favor them for growth exposure and financial strength, as well as exposure to the IT sector. Our recommended exposure to small- and mid-caps is 5%-10% of equity allocation, below the benchmark weighting. The dearth of IPOs in recent years has meant a lack of exciting new companies in the small-cap marketplace. While top-tier stocks (the Mag 7) have soared on enthusiasm for AI, legacy small companies haven’t been able to innovate to the same degree. One of the market surprises in 2025 was the performance of global stocks, which turned in impressive results. We expect the long-term trend favoring U.S. stocks to ultimately re-emerg