Daily Spotlight: Oil Prices Unchanged on Venezuela

Summary

The price of a barrel of the crude oil benchmark grade (West Texas Intermediate) has fluctuated between $56-$80 over the past year and is currently near the bottom of that range. Even after Venezuelan President Madura was removed from office and imprisoned in the U.S., oil prices have not surpassed $60 per barrel. The price of oil is down almost 50% from the $115-120 level touched back in 1H22, when Russia invaded Ukraine. For 2026, our forecast calls for $60 per barrel, and our forecast trading range for is $48-$70. This compares to an average price of $65 in 2025, $77 in 2024, $80 in 2023, and $95 in 2022. The core drivers behind oil prices over the long term come from Econ 101: global supply and demand. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there was an excess supply of oil in 2025: global consumption was estimated at 103.9 million barrels per day, while global production was estimated at 106.2 million barrels. The outlook for 2026 also is for supply to exceed demand, which is likely to extend the ceiling for oil price levels. Of course, there are always wildcards, such as geopolitical developments, tariffs, and to the whims of OPEC. The growth trajectory o