Market Digest: ED, GOOGL, LDOS, TOL, LIN

Summary

This is the first full week of trading for the new year. Investors are coming off a solid year for U.S. equities in 2025, as the total return (including dividends) was 14.9% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 17.9% for the S&P 500, and 21.2% for the Nasdaq Composite On the economic calendar, the week includes the jobs report on Friday. This report is important as government-issued economic data is now flowing on a regular release schedule after the disruption of the federal government shutdown. The December nonfarm payrolls result will compare to 64,000 new jobs in November, while the unemployment rate for December will be updated from the 4.6% rate printed in November. Meanwhile, the private payrolls ADP and job openings reports will be released on Wednesday; the U.S. trade deficit will be updated on Thursday; and new data on housing starts and consumer sentiment comes on Friday. Turning to other data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow measure calls for 3.0% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, and the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts a 2.6% inflation rate in December. Mortgage rates ticked down three basis points last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.15%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices were down three cents and are now at an average of $2.81 per gallon for regular gas. Looking ahead, the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is on January 28. Odds for a rate cut at the meeting are at 15%, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. Assuming there is no rate cut, odds are 49% for a cut at the following meeting on March 18. Taking a deeper dive into performance for 2025, U.S. stocks lagged global stocks. A leading industrialized global stock-market index, the ETF EFA, surged 27%, while the leading emerging market ETF EEM gained 30%. U.S. growth stocks, with a year-to-date gain of 17% (ETF IWF), took the edge over value stocks