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Goldman Sachs expects more Fed cuts in 2026 in response to potential labor market softness.
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The firm sees opportunities in small caps and middle-income consumer plays as the rally broadens beyond Magnificent Seven.
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Apple CEO Tim Cook recently purchased $3M worth of Nike shares.
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A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) just unveiled its 2026 Investment Outlook, and it’s definitely worth a read if you’re looking to ring in the new year right. Undoubtedly, forward-looking forecasts are not to be taken as gospel. However, as a guide, they can offer a ton of value, especially for those who aren’t quite sure how the stage is set for a new year. Undoubtedly, you’ve probably heard that valuations are on the higher end, and, as a result of that, prospective returns for the decade ahead will be on the more modest side.
In any case, 2026 looks like it could be a year for stock pickers, rather than the passive investors who just opt to own the entire S&P 500. As the rally broadens out, rewarding names beyond the Magnificent Seven, things could get really interesting.
Notably, Goldman Sachs sees more Fed cuts in 2026, perhaps in response to softness in the labor market. Add the potential for a new, perhaps far more dovish Fed chair, and it seems like we might get a pair of cuts for the new year. Of course, tariffs and other macro headwinds are worth watching closely. And while 2026 is not expected to be a recession year, there are risks and tech trends (of course, there’s AI) to look out for.
In the new year, Goldman sees opportunity in taking on a more active approach, as small caps and other themes (think the rise of the middle-income consumer and non-U.S. markets) look to fare well in this environment.
Let’s check out two names that I think fit the bill for the climate Goldman sees up ahead.
As a play on the resilient middle-income consumer, Nike (NYSE:NKE) stands out as a great value bet, especially after ricocheting off multi-year depths of below $60 per share. Undoubtedly, even if the middle-income consumer spends at a decent rate in 2026, there’s no guarantee that Nike will find its footing again, especially given growing competition at the local mall-based sneaker stores.
Undoubtedly, you’ve probably seen more than a handful of new, emerging brands in the footwear aisle, many of which might be fresher or more cutting-edge than the classics Nike offers. While it’s tough to forecast fashion industry dynamics, I do think the brand is too powerful to count out.
The Nike swoosh is arguably one of the most legendary American brands, and right now, the power of the brand is being heavily underestimated by investors. As Elliott Hill rolls up his sleeves ahead of a year that’s rich with new releases, new innovations, and heavier marketing spend, perhaps 2026 could be the year where Nike stock finds its footing again. The climate certainly seems conducive to a rebound. Now, Hill and company just have to prove they can outcompete their rivals. With Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook recently buying up $3 million worth of shares, I think prospective buyers ought to “just do it.”
Sticking with the theme of a strong middle-income consumer, we have TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), a Goldman-approved company that has everything it takes to follow up a strong 30% up year with another year of big gains. The off-price retailer is firing on all cylinders, thanks in part to the “thrill of the treasure hunt” experience to be had in its well-stocked stores. As middle-income consumers look for good deals, TJX is bound to have another good year.
Should middle-income consumers have more cash to spend, TJX is going to need to keep inventory availability in good standing. Add the international expansion into the equation, and it seems like the shares are more deserving of a richer premium. Undoubtedly, more unsold goods and excess inventory in the retail scene is good news for TJX, as it swoops in, picking up merchandise at rich markdowns.
At 30.5 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E), shares don’t seem cheap anymore, but they don’t deserve to be, especially as value-based consumption stays strong among consumers with enough cash to spend freely on discretionary goods.
Most Americans drastically underestimate how much they need to retire and overestimate how prepared they are. But data shows that people with one habit have more than double the savings of those who don’t.
And no, it’s got nothing to do with increasing your income, savings, clipping coupons, or even cutting back on your lifestyle. It’s much more straightforward (and powerful) than any of that. Frankly, it’s shocking more people don’t adopt the habit given how easy it is.
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