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Is BKNG a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Booking Holdings Inc. on Sunrise Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BKNG. Booking Holdings Inc.’s share was trading at $190.86 as of April 21st. BKNG’s trailing and forward P/E were 29.00 and 17.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States and internationally. BKNG is being mischaracterized as an “AI loser” amid the broader SaaS sell-off, creating what appears to be a clear market disconnect. The core concern centers on disintermediation, where large language models could theoretically bypass online travel agencies by aggregating listings and completing bookings. However, this overlooks the operational complexity embedded in Booking’s model.
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The company’s moat is rooted in its control of a fragmented “long-tail” supply base, where nearly 90% of listings come from independent hotels and alternative accommodations that rely heavily on Booking for demand generation, pricing, and inventory management. These suppliers lack the capability to optimize for AI-driven discovery, reinforcing Booking’s role as a critical intermediary.
Furthermore, travel is not merely a discovery problem but a transactional and regulatory one. Booking operates as a merchant of record across over 100 payment methods and 50+ currencies, managing trust, compliance, refunds, and customer service at scale—functions that AI platforms have neither the incentive nor infrastructure to replicate. Historical evidence, such as Google’s failed “Book on Google” initiative, underscores the difficulty of moving down the funnel.
Importantly, major platforms like Google and Meta are economically aligned with Booking, benefiting from its significant advertising spend rather than competing with it. As AI evolves, it is more likely to function as a top-of-funnel discovery layer that feeds into Booking rather than replacing it. With shares down approximately 25% and valuation compressing to ~15x EV/EBIT, Booking remains a structurally advantaged compounder positioned to benefit from, rather than be disrupted by, AI.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) by Jimmy Investor in April 2025, which highlighted its OTA dominance, strong financials, and AI-driven growth. BKNG’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 1.38% (adjusted for stock split) since our coverage. Sunrise Capital shares a similar view but emphasizes on mispriced AI disruption fears and Booking’s resilience through its long-tail supply and payments infrastructure.