Traders Bet $430 Million On Oil Price Drop Moments Before Trump’s Latest Iran Ceasefire Extension: Report

Traders reportedly placed bets worth $430 million on a decrease in crude oil prices, just 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.

This marks the fourth instance of large, well-timed directional oil bets placed just ahead of major Iran war developments, with April wagers totaling about $2.1 billion, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Previously, in March, traders placed bets amounting to more than $500 million in the oil market minutes before a significant Truth Social post by Trump concerning “productive” Iran talks.

Between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on Tuesday, traders sold 4,260 lots of oil, worth a total of $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price, reported the publication, citing LSEG data. Trump announced the indefinite ceasefire extension at 20:10 GMT. These trades occurred during post-settlement hours, a period when trading volumes are typically very low.

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At 5:16 am ET, Brent crude oil was trading 2.62% higher at $104.60 per barrel.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group did not immediately respond to Benzinga’s request for comments.

On Sunday, the Speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, took a dig at “vibe-trading” in oil, saying recent market speculation was being driven by Trump’s posts on Iran.

While these strategies may seem clever, Ghalibaf warned that they are built on unstable foundations. He noted that oil trading has a tangible anchor in the form of Dated Brent, the benchmark price for physical crude oil. However, he suggested that U.S. Treasury bonds are now priced based on sentiment and geopolitics, hinting at a weak U.S. financial credibility.

Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper.
Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down.

EUCRBRDT Index GP <GO>

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 19, 2026

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These well-timed trades have also raised eyebrows back home. Investor Peter Schiff has accused Trump of lying about the situation in the Middle East and suggested that Trump’s insiders “must have made billions” from the trade. There’s also political pressure from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and other lawmakers urging deeper scrutiny into this.