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Coming off a strong Friday and fresh record highs for the stock market (and Nvidia), investors look forward to the busiest earnings slate of the season.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed Friday up 0.8% for a 0.6% gain for the week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) finished Friday up 1.6% for a 1.5% return over the five-day stretch. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.2% on Friday for a 0.4% loss for the week.
The Iran situation may remain uncomfortably fluid for many, but investors will have plenty of other catalysts to answer the market’s questions — and raise new ones.
Calendar highlights
The busiest earnings week of the quarter and Jerome Powell’s second-to-last meeting as chair of the Federal Reserve greet investors heading into a jam-packed week.
Taking the spotlight will be first quarter earnings results from five out of the seven “Magnificent Seven” Big Tech companies. Investors will get reports from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL) on Thursday.
With Tesla (TSLA) earnings already in the rear-view, only Nvidia (NVDA) will be left to report later in the calendar.
Also of interest will be earnings from major carriers Verizon (VZ) and T-Mobile (TMUS) on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, and payments processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) on Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Rounding out a packed earnings slate will be energy supermajors Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), along with other big energy names BP (BP), Phillips 66 (PSX), Valero (VLO), and Dominion Energy (D) earlier in the week — expected to provide a read on the impact of the war in Iran on the energy market.
Read more: How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries
On the economic data front, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, where traders are pricing in 99.5% odds that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Also of interest will be Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index figures, providing investors — and policymakers — with a read on the state of what’s been sticky inflation. The March numbers will be closely watched for any impacts of the Middle East conflict.
The Magnificent Seven stocks, the Big Tech heavyweights that have for the past decade powered the American economy, spent much of the first quarter languishing. During the last week of March, the companies shed a combined $850 billion in market value, and by the end of the month, all seven members were negative on the year.
Yet, as our own Brian Sozzi pointed out, as peace talk headlines began percolating in the Middle East, tech has gotten a bid — and not without reason.
Magnificent Seven net income is estimated to grow 25% in 2026 compared to 11% for the S&P 493, with that relative outperformance on net income expected to stretch into 2027, according to Morgan Stanley. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the basket of tech leaders, has returned 13% over the past month against a gain of 9% on the S&P 500.
This week’s earnings results will be the first true test of investor appetite for the tech sector since the war in Iran began rippling through the global economy in late February. The reports will also give investors an update on how the companies are thinking about their massive AI spending projections set at the beginning of this year through fourth quarter earnings — especially after Meta announced 8,000 layoffs and Microsoft began offering buyout packages.
Even with a rough start to the year, there’s reason to look up on Big Tech, Bank of America analysts led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a recent client note. The tech industry is a sector of “haves” versus the have-nots, and “rich in idiosyncratic opportunity.”
It might not be full vindication for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but it’s an offramp.
On Friday, US Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro announced that the Justice Department would be dropping its criminal investigation into Powell for cost overruns during renovations at the Federal Reserve building.
The move to drop the probe means Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, will join in the chorus to confirm Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve beginning in May.
The investigation had “[threatened] to delay [Warsh’s] confirmation and underscores broader concerns about the politicization of the central bank,” noted LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach.
Now, Powell — and the Federal Reserve — has a clear path forward, and the White House is saving face with a non-criminal investigation from the Fed’s inspector general.
The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled an executive session for 10 a.m. Wednesday, where it could vote on Warsh’s nomination.
Powell’s penultimate meeting of the Federal Reserve as chair is expected to be somewhat unremarkable, with traders just shy of unanimous in their bets that the FOMC will keep any potential rate changes on hold at the April meeting.
While Powell said in March that data over the following six weeks would be “very important” for assessing the economic effects of the war in Iran, the market is expecting the Fed governors to continue to, as Powell put it, “watch and see.”
Economic data: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, April
Earnings calendar: Verizon (VZ), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Nucor (NUE), Brown & Brown (BRO), Celestica (CLS)
Economic data: FHFA House Price Index, February (+0.1% expected, +0.1% previously); S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, February; Richmond Fed manufacturing index, April; Conference Board Consumer Confidence, April (89.3 expected, 91.8 previously)
Earnings calendar: Visa (V), Robinhood (HOOD), Mondelez (MDLZ), Seagate (STX), T-Mobile (TMUS), Starbucks (SBUX), UPS (UPS), Spotify (SPOT), Coca-Cola (KO), BP (BP), General Motors (GM), Centene (CNC), S&P Global (SPGI), JetBlue (JBLU), Novartis (NVS), Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
Economic data: Federal Reserve monetary policy decision (no change expected); Housing starts, March (1.4 million annualized rate expected, 1.49 million rate previously); Building permits, March (1.39 million annualized rate expected, 1.39 million rate previously); Durable goods orders, March (+0.5% expected, -1.3% previously)
Earnings calendar: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Chipotle (CMG), Ford (F), Qualcomm (QCOM), Carvana (CVNA), eBay (EBAY), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Mattel (MAT), MGM Resorts (MGM), O’Reilly (ORLY), Regeneron (REGN), Humana (HUM), SoFi (SOFI), Phillips 66 (PSX), Biogen (BIIB), GSK (GSK), Yum Brands (YUM)
Economic data: Personal income, March (+0.3% expected, -0.1% previously); Personal spending, March (+0.9 expected, +0.3% previously); PCE inflation, month-on-month, March (+0.7% expected, +0.4% previously); PCE inflation, year-over-year, March (+3.5% expected, +2.8% previously); Core PCE inflation, month-on-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); Core PCE inflation, year-over-year, March (+3.2% expected, +3% previously); First quarter GDP, first estimate (+2.1% annualized rate expected, +0.4% previously)
Earnings calendar: Apple (AAPL), SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Reddit (RDDT), Rivian (RIVN), Amgen (AMGN), Atlassian (TEAM), Clorox (CLX), Twilio (TWLO), Caterpillar (CAT), Eli Lilly (LLY), Altria (MO), Mastercard (MA), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Molson Coors (TAP), Stellantis (STLA), Hershey (HSY), Blue Owl (OWL), Crocs (CROX)
Economic data: Wards total vehicle sales, April (16.1 million annualized rate); S&P Global manufacturing PMI (54 previously); ISM manufacturing PMI, April (53.1 expected; 52.7 previously)
Earnings calendar: Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Moderna (MRNA), Church & Dwight (CHD), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Esteé Lauder (EL), Ares (ARES)
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