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Oil futures have traded in the $90 to $100 per barrel range this week.
But in the physical market — where refiners and traders buy actual cargoes rather than paper contracts — prices have been dramatically higher, underscoring how tight real-world supply conditions still are despite the pullback in futures pricing.
In Sri Lanka, buyers have reportedly paid as much as $286 per barrel for prompt crude, while all-in cargo costs into Singapore have been quoted as high as $210, HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery said earlier this week.
“What worries me is not the headlines,” Elhedery said, speaking at the HSBC global investment summit in Hong Kong on Tuesday. “The barrel of oil door to door, or the barrel of refined oil door to door, is way above the headline price of oil.”
Oil futures contracts reflect a standardized delivery contract for some predetermined date in the future, and those contracts can be bought or sold without oil ever actually changing hands. In the physical market, the buyer pays a litany of fees on top of the oil itself, including freight costs, insurance, financing, and scarcity premiums.
Read more: You can trade oil futures. What to know before you start.
For buyers around the world looking for oil available for delivery as soon as possible after seeing their usual supplies from the Persian Gulf cut to zero, the typical spread between paper and physical markets has gotten even more painful.
In mid-March, prices for Dubai crude and Oman crude — key benchmarks for buyers in Asia and elsewhere around the world that rely on Middle Eastern oil — jumped as high as $169.75 per barrel, without factoring in any of the extra costs of shipping in the physical market.
Dated Brent, the benchmark contract for near-term physical delivery of North Sea oil, reached an all-time high of $144 per barrel on April 7. Even as the spot price has moderated to roughly $116 as of Friday, it still remains roughly $30 higher than the front-month Brent futures contract, compared to a typical difference of $1 to $2.
“Today’s much wider gap signals a market struggling to source barrels for delivery now, even if it still assumes supply will normalize later,” JPMorgan Chase strategists, led by head of global commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva, wrote in a recent client note.
“In that sense, the strength in Dated Brent is the market’s way of signaling that time has become a scarce commodity,” they wrote.
Read more: How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries
Positive headlines over the past have sent prices in both the physical and paper markets downward. Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a temporary 10-day ceasefire, taking pressure off a key sticking point in US-Iran negotiations, while President Trump said Iran had agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear program and that a deal should close in the coming days.
On Friday, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that, given the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage through the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire” for “all commercial vessels.”
Yet nothing has structurally changed in the oil market to justify the pricing drop, JPMorgan’s strategists wrote. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has constricted global supply even further, cutting off the 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil that had been steadily flowing even as other traffic had stopped, and global inventories have shrunk.
“With supplies tightening and inventories drawing, physical prices should be rising, not falling,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote. “The only way to reconcile lower prices with tighter fundamentals is weaker demand.”
In Europe, the JPMorgan strategists point out, demand destruction has already begun, pulling the price of physical Brent contracts for near-term delivery from above $140 per barrel in early April to $116 per barrel on Friday.
Read more: $100 oil could send airfare soaring this summer. These tips could save you.
Prices European refineries can charge for products such as diesel and jet fuel have fallen below the cost of crude and processing, according to the strategists, pushing refiners to cut production runs and reduce their crude purchases.
Even so, prices may have room to climb higher, said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil commodity markets at the consultancy Rystad Energy.
Even given the bevy of positive headlines, Shah said, the response on the ground from shipowners is likely to be measured and cautious, rather than a rush back to normalcy. If refiners, hoping for prices to drop further on more positive headlines, delay their purchases, the market could tighten even further.
The dynamic exacerbates “one of the most important near-term market features” in the dislocation between futures and physicals, Shah said, as physical spreads and tanker rates remain heightened while crude buyers continue to pay premiums to secure the limited oil available right now outside of the Gulf.
“In this ceasefire environment, paper markets reprice the relief almost instantly, while physical indicators and differentials still reflect caution,” Shah said.
“This goes to show that the perceived geopolitical risk can ease faster than operational risk.”
Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.
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