Stock market today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq rebound as Trump says Israel, Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire

Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement, President Trump said in a Truth Social post on Thursday, marking a temporary break in a conflict that has snarled any potential positive movement between the US and Iran.

“I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST,” the president wrote.

Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon against the Iran-backed proxy force Hezbollah, which Netanyahu launched shortly after the Iran war began, has emerged as a key sticking point in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations.

Even as Iran has insisted that a cessation of Israeli military action in Lebanon must be part of any ceasefire, Israel has continued a widespread air and ground campaign within the country against Hezbollah through the US-Iran ceasefire, set to expire on Tuesday.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, said in a post on X on Wednesday that the US “must commit” to the “completion and consolidation of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon.”

The US has insisted that it does not view Lebanon as part of any ceasefire arrangements with Iran.

Futures on oil continued their move up on Thursday. International benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 3.4% on the session, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WT) crude (CL=F) futures gained a slimmer 2.3%.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency said Thursday that Europe has “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left,” and flight cancellations are likely imminent.

In an interview with the Associated Press published Thursday, IEA leader Fatih Birol warned that the war in Iran — and the following cessation of commodity flows out of the Strait of Hormuz — has created “the largest energy crisis in history.”

In his comments to the AP, Birol cited higher gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel costs that are likely to continue rising, as a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and a reopening of the strait remain out of reach.

“It is going to have major implications for the global economy,” Birol told the AP. “And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world.”

Spirit Airline parent Spirit Aviation Holdings (FLYYQ) is at risk of being liquidated as early as this week, Bloomberg reports, citing rising jet fuel costs as putting further pressure on the company.

Bloomberg sources claim the company could liquidate as soon as this week, though the situation is fluid, as Spirit is in talks with its creditors and could continue operations with fresh capital.

It’s been a rough go of it for the budget carrier. Spirit filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in August 2025 — the second time it had to do so in under a year.

A Spirit spokesperson declined to comment to Bloomberg.

Read more here.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) just broke out to new highs. The next question is whether it holds.

This morning, I noted that the index had flashed a rare bullish thrust signal, rising 10% in only 11 trading days. Now the question is whether this breakout sticks, or starts to look more like the dot-com peak — a brief push to new highs before a sharp reversal.

The best tell may be what’s happening under the hood. One simple way to track that is the advance-decline line, a running measure of how many S&P 500 stocks are rising versus falling.

After last year’s “Liberation Day” sell-off, breadth confirmed the recovery early. The advance-decline line peaked first in late 2024, then exceeded that high on May 2, 2025. Only after that did the S&P 500 reclaim and exceed its own prior peak on June 27, 2025.

Today, the sequence is a little different. The S&P 500 peaked on Jan. 27, 2026. Breadth peaked a month later on Feb. 27, and price has already pushed to a new closing high as of April 15.

That keeps the setup bullish. But until breadth comes into the picture, this breakout is not fully confirmed.

US gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by more than 10% by 2034 on the back of large-scale economic growth driven by the boom in AI, BNP Paribas economists wrote in a client note on Wednesday.

“The AI boom will be a period of optimism, in our view, in which the decisions of consumers, businesses and investors are informed by expectations of strong and sustained productivity growth,” the economists wrote.

While BNP Paribas expects the US, Europe, and the UK to all benefit economically from the advent of the technology, the US is best positioned to see the largest benefits, the economists wrote.

US GDP alone is likely to grow by 6.7% by 2034 under the bank’s central scenario, while the economists see GDP growth across the US, UK, and Europe averaging 4% above the baseline.

“These results broadly match the historical experience of the [information and communications technology] revolution, when the US pulled ahead of Europe,” the economists wrote.

The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time on Wednesday, marking the index’s first record close since January and a return to new highs after two months of disruptions tagged to private credit, an AI software apocalypse, and then the outbreak of the US-Iran war.

At its trough, the S&P 500 was down 9% from its late January highs.

With Wednesday’s close, the index returned to a record just 11 days after reaching this nadir.

And according to data from Bespoke Investment Group, this marks the fastest move from a correction of this size to a new record high since 1928.

Here’s Bespoke:

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) both notched their second intraday record highs of 2026 at the open. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) did the same, bringing its 2026 total to eight, while the Dow Transports (^DJT) just logged its 16th all-time high of the year.

Both Nasdaq indexes, along with large-cap tech (XLK), are on track to extend their winning streaks to a historic 12 days. Semiconductors (SOXX), meanwhile, are in the red and set to snap an 11-day streak.

Interestingly, not a single large-cap sector has made a record high in this comeback, either intraday or on a closing basis. Even so, small-cap tech (PSCT) has become the first sector in its cohort to hit an intraday record high, and the Russell 2000 (^RUT) is within a hair of its first record closing high since January.

Initial jobless claims fell to 207,000 in the week ended April 11, according to data released by the Department of Labor on Thursday, coming in below the previous week’s revised tally of 218,000 claims.

Economists had expected initial claims of 213,000 for the week, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The falling unemployment claims came after the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book, which is published eight times per year. Most districts, the Fed wrote, “described labor demand as stable, with low turnover, minimal layoffs, and hiring mostly for replacement.”

Continuing claims, which track the unemployed population still seeking work, rose to 1.82 million for the week ended April 4, above economists’ expectations of 1.81 million and the previous week’s 1.79 million.