Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise on Iran deal hopes, cooler-than-expected wholesale inflation data

US stocks turned positive on Tuesday while oil prices pulled back as investors digested news that talks between the US and Iran may resume as soon as this week.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) picked up 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which includes fewer tech names, rose a slimmer 0.1%.

At the same time, oil prices fell as investors awaited updates on the Strait of Hormuz. Futures on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude fell 3.6% to trade below $96 per barrel, while those on international benchmark Brent (BZ=F) crude fell 2% to trade around $97.20

US producer prices rose more slowly than expected in March, rising 0.5% in March over the previous month, below economists’ expectations for an increase of 1.1% on the month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported a 13% rise in profits as CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged the economy is facing an “increasingly complex set of risks.” BlackRock (BLK), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) also reported beats on earnings.

US producer prices rose less than expected in March, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, marking a turnaround from February’s overheated reading.

Prices rose 0.5% in March over the previous month, in line with February’s revised gain of 0.5% and less than economists’ expectations for an increase of 1.1% on the month.

Excluding the more volatile food and energy costs, producer prices advanced by 0.1% over the previous month, falling below the 0.4% growth economists had predicted and the previous month’s revised gain of 0.3%.

On a year-over-year basis, headline prices rose by 4% in March, below estimates of 4.6% yet above the previous month’s 3.4% year-over-year increase. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 3.8% year over year, cooler than estimates of 4.1% and in line with the previous month’s 3.8% revised gain.

Nearly half of the price gains in March for final demand goods can be attributed to a 15.7% month-over-month jump in gasoline prices, the BLS said Tuesday, with increases in diesel, jet fuel, and home heating oil as well.

At the macro level, final demand prices for energy roses 8.5% on the month, the BLS said.

The BLS also noted that within final demand services for the month, prices for airline passenger services rose 2.8%.

As the war in Iran rolls into its seventh week, markets are still putting more weight on impacts to inflation than a potential growth shock down the road, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a client note on Tuesday.

Since the war began, yields have increased across all G10 economies, with six of those governments now expected to raise rates in 2026, up from three prior to the outbreak of conflict, economists George Cole and William Marshall wrote.

Only the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year, though the timeline for a cut has been pushed out, the economists said.

“Despite the potential for commodity price spikes to lead to weaker growth, this energy price shock has led to higher rates and hawkish forecast revisions for many central banks,” Cole and Marshall wrote.

The temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has reduced the risk of a sudden inflationary shock, the economists noted — though the perception of lower risks “leaves financial conditions looser and growth risks lower.”

That said, Cole and Marshall wrote, the economic risks of the conflict remain skewed toward higher inflation.

“So far the inflationary aspects of the commodity price shock have dominated growth concerns,” Cole and Marshall wrote. “Unless the market sees forward growth prospects deteriorate sharply, this repricing is likely to remain somewhat sticky even as front-end yields sit higher than most of our baseline forecasts for central bank paths.”